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Azerbaijan: turning over a new leaf?

International Crisis Group
Europe Report N°156 13 May 2004
Link to the source  http://www.crisisweb.org/home/getfile.cfm?id=1228&type=pdf


13 May 2004

Europe Report N°156 Baku/Brussels

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS. i

I. INTRODUCTION: THE STRATEGIC CONTEXT
A.  CASPIAN ENERGY POLITICS 
1.  Transit routes and production 
2.  Oil and the dual economy 
B.  THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT
C.  THE AZERI QUESTION

II. A FAMILY AFFAIR
A.  FROM ALIYEV TO ALIYEV.
B.  THE ALIYEV FAMILY .
1.  The ruling clan and oligarchs
2.  The media 

III. OCTOBER 2003 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
A.  NEITHER FREE NOR FAIR.
B.  FOREIGN SUPPORT AND SIGNS OF CONTINUITY

IV. CHALLENGES AHEAD
A.  POTENTIAL CRACKS IN THE RULING ELITE.
1.  Generational tensions
2.  Regionalism and clans
B.  RELIGION
1.  Religion and the state
2.  Nardaran events: social protests and political manipulation 
3.  Radical Islam and state repression
C.  GOVERNANCE .
1.  Democratisation and political frustrations
2.  Reform and reliance on the young elite 
D.  CRIME OR POLITICAL INSTABILITY?
E.  INTERNATIONAL RESPONSES TO SECURITY ISSUES
1.  Background on the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations

V. CONCLUSION

APPENDICES
A. MAP OF AZERBAIJAN
B. GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS
C. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
D. ICG REPORTS AND BRIEFING PAPERS.
E. ICG BOARD MEMBERS .

 


Azerbaijan: turning over a new leaf?


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